DISinflation expectations > Fed credibility. Recent inflation has been driven primarily by supply issues, which are correcting, so rate hikes are fighting a monetary theory ghost. As you point out, prices are already reverting to the mean in many cases and the area where rate hikes have had the most significant impact, real estate, has not yet impacted the CPI numbers because of the lag in the shelter portion of CPI. (h/t David Bahnsen) Barring a black swan event, my bold prediction is 0.25% rate cut by Dec '23 and fed funds rate will fall steadily in '24 as Japanification settles in.

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