Will U.S. Deployments Prevent or Spark a China-Taiwan War?

The 1979 decision to pull U.S. forces out of Taiwan looks worse than ever

Some of us are old enough to remember when preventing a China-Taiwan war was more important than avoiding one. It was in 1979 that President Carter broke off formal relations with the government of Taiwan, abrogated a long-term treaty with that country, and most significantly pulled out all American military forces that were stationed there permanently. This was all done at the behest of the Chinese government in Beijing as the price of normalized relations. Was it a good move?

In the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the bigger question is: Should the U.S. redeploy forces to Taiwan? Seems like troops and naval port calls are already underway — a move initiated by President Trump and continued by President Biden. Interesting to say the least. So the question really must be: Will U.S. Deployments Prevent or Spark a China-Taiwan War?

Deployment History

According to Pentagon records, somewhere between five and ten thousand active duty American troops were based in Taiwan until 1975. Ching Chuan Kang Air Base was the home of dozens of USAF fighters — F-104s and F-4s — and thousands of U.S. airmen for decades, but lowered its U.S. flag on April 30, 1979. Marines, sailors, and GIs on the island numbered in the thousands as well: “a total of about 9,000 troops, including 4,000 infantry troops drawn from Army and Marine battalions, including an airborne battalion of the 82nd Airborne Division, 4 attack submarines, 5 navy frigates, 7 navy missile boats, and a naval air wing.”

Most of those forces, particularly the large Air Force presence, was in place to fight in Vietnam. Once Nixon made the fateful decision to “go to China” and begin friendly relations with Beijing, and also to end the war in Vietnam in 1973, momentum grew to withdraw all forces. Jimmy Carter campaigned in 1975 with a promise to bring all U.S. soldiers back to U.S. soil more generally, with specific mention of South Korea in particular. So it’s no surprise that he moved to wreck the Taiwan alliance so abruptly in December 1978. Here’s how the New York Times reported it:

In a dramatic and unexpected speech on national television, Mr. Carter also announced that the United States would terminate diplomatic relations and its mutual defense treaty with Taiwan. …

“The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China,” the President said, reading from a joint communique released in Washington and Peking. …

The President conceded that the normalization of relations with China after nearly 30 years was a politically controversial act and said that it had received “mixed response” from Congressional leaders with whom he met earlier in the evening.

I was curious to see a graphical view of the drawdown as recorded in the dataset I keep on global U.S. troop deployments, presented in the chart above. You may recall that U.S. bases in the Philippines were shut down abruptly in the early 1990s. The chart suggests that both nations in the South China Sea saw a total withdrawal and that no American forces have been based there since the Cold War ended. Take a closer look:

All Quiet in the South China Sea?

Starting in 2012, the United States has been stationing troops in Taiwan, and the numbers have been on the rise in recent years. The move isn’t being flouted nor kept secret. “The increase from 20 personnel to 39 between December 31 and September 30 came with little fanfare, but it did coincide with a rare public acknowledgement by President Tsai Ing-wen in October that the U.S. military maintains a small presence in Taiwan,” reported the VOA in 2021. Photos and video of U.S. Army soldiers training alongside Taiwanese soldiers on Taiwan’s soil were not so subtly released as well.

Add to that a succession of high level diplomatic visits (remember when Speaker Nancy Pelosi dropped by?) and port calls by U.S. Naval vessels starting back in 2018. To be sure, Beijing doesn’t like the resumption of a U.S.-Taiwan alliance, but it is unclear what can be done. Since 1972, there a tacit understanding held that the U.S. will not interfere with Taiwan’s defense AND that China would not invade. As Beijing continues to escalate its aggressive moves in the South China Sea, it all but invites Washington to escalate as well.

Two risks are in tension for American leaders — provoking a conflict by deploying too many American troops too fast too openly -or- inviting a conflict by withdrawing military and diplomatic support. With multiple options going forward, one has to wonder which balances the dual risks best. Your thoughts?