Way too many hot takes today are saying (1) the second GOP presidential was inconsequential, (2) Trump is overshadowing all these puny contenders, and so (3) none of them are “winners.” That strikes me as way wrong, not to mention premature.
If I may take a bow, I called out Nikki Haley as the potential superstar of these debates. That prediction proved right for a second time last night. Ambassador Haley has been extremely impressive. Most pundits recognize her potential. Does it matter? Yes, and here’s why:
First, Haley is now the front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination. If Donald Trump is the nominee in 2024, whether he wins the White House or not, last night was a preview of the 2028 race. It might also include Mike Pompeo, Glenn Youngkin, and new faces, sure. But this moment echoes for me the Reagan-Ford primary in 1976, a preview of Ronald Reagan’s ascent. If that is not consequential in American politics, nothing is. As I wrote before the first debate:
So … keep on eye on who might be the front-runner for the next cycle in 2028 (assuming this election settles into a Trump-Biden rematch as seems most likely). This “future president” may surprise everyone, even herself. I have my eye on you, Nikki Haley.
Second, it’s early! Only a third of likely voters watched the debate, and those were mostly partial watchers. Count on many heads falling in the coming weeks, especially because the bar for the next debates is higher. Candidates must have 20k more unique donors and at least 4% of the vote in multiple polls to qualify for the November 8 debate that will be held in Miami. Only three candidates have qualified for the next debate: Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy. When candidates drop out, and they will, momentum will surge for the non-Trump survivors. That’s a Tim Kane prediction: I think the Trump vote is maxxed within the GOP right now, so vote shifting among the contenders will be amplified.
Hard to believe, but there were five(!) primary debates in 2015 - including one in December. Each had a dozen candidates or more. Total chaos.
If the RNC forces a winnowing on debates #4 and #5 in late November and December this year, it will be a radically different environment. So far, there is no schedule announced for the next debates. Ballots, however, will be cast in Iowa (January 15) and New Hampshire (TBD).